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3

La Pulga

5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 85

Durbanville · Matchem Stakes (Grade 3) · 6f 211y

#7

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#7

★★ Timeform

Commentary

2 wins from 6 runs this year. Latest win at Kenilworth in May. 4/1, 4¼ lengths seventh of 11 to Magic Verse in Gr 3 at Greyville (10.9f, good) 84 days ago. Significantly back down in trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲2
Strength31%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.7
Today:
Class gap: -2.1
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Durbanville 29/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 6f47y Gd 13229/10C5C5 @ Kenilworth 03/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR - · 7f101y Gd 136C3 @ Kenilworth 13/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 1m209y Gd 11513/12C3C0 @ Kenilworth 10/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 1m209y Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASSC5 @ Durbanville 11/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 1m1f208y Gd 13211/02C5C5 @ Kenilworth 06/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 1m209y Gd 132C1 @ Kenilworth 03/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 1m209y Sft 1263/05C1C3 @ Greyville 06/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 1m209y Gd 122C3 @ Greyville 04/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR - · 1m2f206y Gd 1274/07C3projClass-projected finish: 6th of 8
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-04Greyville?7th10th−2
2026-06-06Greyville?6th9th−2
2026-05-03Kenilworth?1st1st0
2026-04-06Kenilworth?1st6th−4
2026-02-11Durbanville?2nd7th−4
2026-01-10Kenilworth?6th6th+0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/1010/013/054/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 6-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -2.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/10/20253rd7/163%60%-0.03
03/12/20255th7/282%50%-0.32
13/12/20254th11/142%63%+0.20
10/01/20266th28/10%44%+0.44
11/02/20262nd5/287%86%-0.01
06/04/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
03/05/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
06/06/20266th9/276%44%-0.32
04/07/20267th9/276%40%-0.36