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5

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5yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 110

Durbanville · Matchem Stakes (Grade 3) · 6f 211y

#5

Rank

Odds

10/3

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

C&D winner. 7/1, 3½ lengths fifth of 8 to Eight On Eighteen in Gr 1 at Greyville (9f, good) 62 days ago. Back down in trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength24%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC1 @ Kenilworth 08/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 1268/11C12 @ Kenilworth 10/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 7f101y Gd 132C0 @ Kenilworth 10/01/2026 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASS10/01C?C0 @ Kenilworth 31/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR - · 1m1f208y Gd 131 · HIGHER CLASSC1 @ Kenilworth 06/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 1326/04C1C0 @ Greyville 02/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 6f211y GS 126 · HIGHER CLASSC0 @ Greyville 06/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASS6/06C?C0 @ Greyville 04/07/2026 · Pos 12th of 18 · OR - · 1m2f206y Gd 137 · HIGHER CLASSC0 @ Greyville 26/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 1m209y Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASS26/07C?projClass-projected finish: 4th of 8
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-26Greyville?5th5th+0
2026-07-04Greyville?12th12th+0
2026-06-06Greyville?2nd2nd+0
2026-05-02Greyville?4th4th+0
2026-04-06Kenilworth?5th5th0
2026-01-31Kenilworth?2nd2nd+0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/1131/016/0626/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength73%

Delivery trend -7.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/11/20251st25/10%100%+1.00
10/12/20252nd2/189%86%-0.04
10/01/20269th50/10%38%+0.38
31/01/20262nd25/10%90%+0.90
06/04/20265th5/174%50%-0.24
02/05/20264th6/168%63%-0.06
06/06/20262nd8/158%91%+0.33
04/07/202612th22/10%35%+0.35
26/07/20265th7/163%43%-0.20