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10

Magma Flow

3yo Colt · 7-12 · OR 78

Durbanville · Matchem Stakes (Grade 3) · 6f 211y

#8

Rank

Odds

80/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Winner at Kenilworth in April. Bit below form sixth of 11 in minor event at this course (5f, good to soft, 66/1) 10 days ago. Significantly back up in trip. Easy to look elsewhere.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲3
Strength16%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.

Class-adjusted form 8.1 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.3
Today:
Class gap: -2.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Kenilworth 13/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 13213/12C?C5 @ Kenilworth 10/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 130C8 @ Kenilworth 04/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 1324/02C8C3 @ Kenilworth 28/02/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 130C8 @ Kenilworth 15/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 13215/04C8C3 @ Kenilworth 03/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 5f103y Sft 132C1 @ Kenilworth 31/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 5f212y GS 12831/05C1C1 @ Durbanville 27/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR - · 7f101y Gd 132C5 @ Durbanville 16/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR - · 4f214y GS 11616/09C5projClass-projected finish: 8th of 8
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-16Durbanville?6th11th−4
2026-06-27Durbanville?5th5th0
2026-05-31Kenilworth?6th6th−0
2026-05-03Kenilworth?3rd6th−2
2026-04-15Kenilworth?1st10th−7
2026-02-28Kenilworth?8th11th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/1228/0231/0516/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength37%

Delivery trend -1.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 8.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/12/20255th20/10%50%+0.50
10/01/20265th28/10%64%+0.64
04/02/20262nd18/15%91%+0.86
28/02/20268th25/10%13%+0.13
15/04/20261st4/797%100%+0.03
03/05/20263rd28/10%67%+0.67
31/05/20266th25/10%29%+0.29
27/06/20265th50/10%50%+0.50
16/09/20266th40/10%50%+0.50