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4

Outlaw King

6yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 90

Durbanville · Matchem Stakes (Grade 3) · 6f 211y

#6

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

★★ Timeform

Commentary

C&D winner. 7¼ lengths twelfth of 14 to Jet Force in Gr 3 at Greyville (6f, good, 100/1) 84 days ago. Difficult ask.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength41%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC4 @ Greyville 27/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR - · 4f214y GS 13227/07C4C1 @ Durbanville 27/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 132C5 @ Durbanville 18/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 13218/10C5C2 @ Kenilworth 13/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 18 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 129C0 @ Kenilworth 10/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASS10/01C?C0 @ Kenilworth 28/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASSC0 @ Greyville 02/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR - · 6f211y GS 129 · HIGHER CLASS2/05C?C2 @ Scottsville 23/05/2026 · Pos 13th of 15 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 133C1 @ Greyville 04/07/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 1374/07C1projClass-projected finish: 7th of 8
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-04Greyville?12th12th0
2026-05-23Scottsville?13th15th−1
2026-05-02Greyville?9th9th+0
2026-02-28Kenilworth?3rd3rd+0
2026-01-10Kenilworth?3rd3rd+0
2025-12-13Kenilworth?1st3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/0713/122/054/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 6-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength14%

Delivery trend -0.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 8.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/07/20252nd11/486%91%+0.05
27/09/20253rd5/174%78%+0.04
18/10/20251st15/890%100%+0.10
13/12/20251st6/168%100%+0.32
10/01/20263rd12/137%85%+0.48
28/02/20263rd13/266%85%+0.19
02/05/20269th22/10%0%0.00
23/05/202613th16/116%14%-0.02
04/07/202612th66/10%15%+0.15