3
Lady Look Alike
6yo Mare · 9-1 · OR 75
Durbanville · Lucky Fish Crazy Time Class 4 (F & M) · 6f 47y
#6
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Durbanville | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Kenilworth | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-06 | Kenilworth | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-18 | Durbanville | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Durbanville | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-01-17 | Durbanville | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength89%
Delivery trend +1.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09/2025 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 06/12/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |
| 04/01/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 17/01/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 56% | -0.13 |
| 14/02/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 18/03/2026 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |
| 06/04/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 38% | -0.23 |
| 31/05/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 73% | +0.04 |
| 27/06/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 70% | +0.23 |