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5

Miss William

5yo Mare · 9-4 · OR 72

Durbanville · Lucky Fish Crazy Time Class 4 (F & M) · 6f 47y

#7

Rank

Odds

11/4

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

C&D winner. 20/1, good fourth of 8 in handicap at this C&D (good) 63 days ago. Must improve.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.

Class-adjusted form 8.7 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Durbanville 08/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR - · 6f47y Gd 1238/1044 @ Durbanville 29/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 6f47y Gd 125C5 @ Kenilworth 21/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 12221/12C5C5 @ Kenilworth 10/01/2026 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 1224 @ Kenilworth 04/02/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 1354/024C5 @ Kenilworth 06/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR - · 5f103y Gd 1224 @ Kenilworth 27/04/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR - · 5f212y GS 13427/0444 @ Kenilworth 31/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR - · 5f212y GS 1334 @ Durbanville 25/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 6f47y Gd 13225/074projClass-projected finish: 8th of 9
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-25Durbanville44th4th0
2026-05-31Kenilworth412th12th0
2026-04-27Kenilworth412th12th0
2026-04-06Kenilworth?4th5th−1
2026-02-04Kenilworth49th9th0
2026-01-10Kenilworth?10th11th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/1010/0127/0425/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength66%

Delivery trend -5.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/10/20252nd18/15%90%+0.85
29/10/20251st12/137%100%+0.63
21/12/20257th5/174%14%-0.59
10/01/202610th18/15%25%+0.20
04/02/20269th11/142%11%-0.31
06/04/20264th22/10%25%+0.25
27/04/202612th25/10%0%0.00
31/05/202612th40/10%0%0.00
25/07/20264th11/142%57%+0.15