4
Barney Mcgrew
9yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 75
Durbanville · Hollywoodbets Bright Future D Stakes · 4f 214y
#1
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
33%
Place Prob
40%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength41%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Durbanville | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Durbanville | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Durbanville | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Kenilworth | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-12-24 | Kenilworth | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-15 | Kenilworth | 4 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength69%
Delivery trend -2.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08/2025 | 2nd | 18/1 | 5% | 86% | +0.80 |
| 07/09/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 43% | -0.33 |
| 05/10/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |
| 15/11/2025 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 24/12/2025 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 31/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 91% | +0.38 |
| 27/06/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 40% | -0.44 |
| 18/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 89% | +0.18 |
| 02/09/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |