7
Heritage Ridge
5yo Mare · 9-1 · OR 50
Durbanville · Hollywoodbets Bright Future D Stakes · 4f 214y
#3
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength34%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Kenilworth | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Durbanville | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Durbanville | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Kenilworth | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-31 | Kenilworth | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-03 | Kenilworth | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength60%
Delivery trend -0.0% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10/2025 | 10th | 22/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 14/02/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 01/04/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 57% | +0.05 |
| 03/05/2026 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 85% | +0.85 |
| 31/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 82% | +0.08 |
| 21/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 27/06/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 18/07/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 15/08/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 80% | +0.25 |