3
Love Shack
6yo Mare · 9-1 · OR 44
Durbanville · Hollywoodbets Bright Future D Stakes · 4f 214y
#9
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Kenilworth | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Durbanville | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Kenilworth | 5 | 11th | 12th | −1 |
| 2026-03-18 | Durbanville | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-03-04 | Durbanville | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Durbanville | 5 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 3-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength29%
Delivery trend -5.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 15/11/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 56% | +0.03 |
| 06/12/2025 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 31% | +0.15 |
| 14/02/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 44% | +0.02 |
| 04/03/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 18/03/2026 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 33% | -0.56 |
| 31/05/2026 | 11th | 8/1 | 58% | 9% | -0.49 |
| 18/07/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 22% | -0.04 |
| 15/08/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 50% | +0.45 |