5
Peace Of Mind
5yo Mare · 10-1 · OR 68
Durbanville · Hollywoodbets Bright Future D Stakes · 4f 214y
#2
Rank
Odds
1/1
Win Prob
67%
Place Prob
57%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength39%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Kenilworth | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Durbanville | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Kenilworth | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Kenilworth | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-04-01 | Kenilworth | 4 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-03-04 | Durbanville | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +2.2% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/12/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 44% | -0.03 |
| 13/01/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 04/02/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 88% | +0.14 |
| 04/03/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 01/04/2026 | 10th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 16/05/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 21/06/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |
| 18/07/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 15/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 90% | +0.16 |