12
Little Dream
5yo Gelding · 0-0
Enghien · Prix Du Cotentin - Attele · 1m 2f 151y
#12
Rank
Odds
80/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼13
Strength29%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 13 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 6.6)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 18
Class gap: +12.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Cabourg | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-02-06 | Argentan | 5 | +13 | ||
| 2026-01-21 | Mauquenchy | 6 | 5th | -9th | +12 |
| 2025-12-15 | Le Mans | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-20 | Caen | ? | 0 | ||
| 2025-07-04 | Feurs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 148% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength56%
Delivery trend +7.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 13th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/03/2024 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 64% | -0.07 |
| 15/04/2024 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 53% | +0.01 |
| 15/11/2024 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 16/12/2024 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 04/07/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 15/12/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 81% | +0.81 |
| 21/01/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 25/08/2026 | 11th | 66/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |