10
Mercenaire D'echal
4yo Colt · 9-13
Enghien · Prix De Thomery - Monte · 1m 6f 64y
#2
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
66%
Place Prob
50%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 1.7)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-18 | Caen | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-02 | Les Sables | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-04-12 | Graignes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Laval | 6 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2025-09-09 | Vincennes | ? | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 2-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▼
Strength81%
Delivery trend -8.4% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 92% | +0.16 |
| 12/04/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 18/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 90% | -0.01 |