5
Moumba De Guez
4yo Filly · 9-8
Enghien · Prix De Mauperthuis - Monte · 1m 6f 64y
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
97%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Mauquenchy | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-26 | Les Sables | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Pornichet | 5 | −1 | ||
| 2026-07-01 | Vichy | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Cabourg | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▼
Strength67%
Delivery trend -18.0% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 77% | +0.77 |
| 01/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 88% | +0.05 |
| 26/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 92% | +0.16 |
| 10/09/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |