3
Andthethunderrolls
9yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 72
Fairmount Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#2
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
38%
Place Prob
36%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Fairmount Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-27 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-09-06 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-08-26 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength57%
Delivery trend +4.0% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/05/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 29/06/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 09/08/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 26/08/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 06/09/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 27/09/2025 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 20% | -0.67 |
| 30/05/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 20/06/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 25/08/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |