Danville
9yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 74
Fairmount Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#1
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
46%
Place Prob
40%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Fairmount Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Fairmount Park | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Fairmount Park | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-19 | Hawthorne | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-02 | Hawthorne | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 28/08/2025 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 11/09/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 02/10/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 19/10/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 09/05/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 23/05/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 23/06/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 08/09/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |