5
Minnesota Moon
6yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 70
Fairmount Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#5
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Fairmount Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Fairmount Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Hawthorne | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Hawthorne | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength44%
Delivery trend -3.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 80% | +0.64 |
| 30/10/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 03/05/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 17/05/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 09/06/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 21/06/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 14% | -0.44 |
| 05/07/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 04/08/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 08/09/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |