1
Chance Taker
4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 67
Fairmount Park · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
58%
Place Prob
40%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Fairmount Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-08-05 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +7.5% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/05/2025 | 5th | 10/11 | 95% | 56% | -0.40 |
| 08/07/2025 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 05/08/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 28/04/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 26/05/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 23/06/2026 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 01/08/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 08/09/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |