6
Dessert First
6yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 83
Fairmount Park · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-20 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-04-14 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2025-11-02 | Hawthorne | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-10-05 | Hawthorne | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength87%
Delivery trend +11.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07/2025 | 4th | 1/1 | 95% | 40% | -0.55 |
| 27/07/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 21/09/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 05/10/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 02/11/2025 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 14/04/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |
| 20/06/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 75% | +0.07 |
| 07/07/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 28/07/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 83% | +0.57 |