2
Lit Miss Hat Trick
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 82
Fairmount Park · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
23%
Place Prob
26%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Fairmount Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Hawthorne | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-23 | Fairmount Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength80%
Delivery trend +3.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 26/04/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 30/05/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 23/06/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 14% | -0.33 |
| 05/07/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 18/07/2026 | 5th | 13/8 | 91% | 0% | -0.91 |
| 04/08/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 13% | -0.59 |
| 18/08/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |
| 12/09/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 60% | -0.03 |