4
Nandina
5yo Mare · 9-0 · OR 71
Fairmount Park · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
9/5
Win Prob
14%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-04-24 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-03-27 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 8th | 10th | −2 |
| 2026-03-19 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-02-20 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 4th | 8th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength47%
Delivery trend -9.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/09/2023 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 15/10/2023 | 3rd | 40/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 20/02/2026 | 4th | 13/8 | 91% | 70% | -0.21 |
| 19/03/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 27/03/2026 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 24/04/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 12/05/2026 | 2nd | 2/5 | 98% | 83% | -0.15 |
| 18/08/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |