3
Steal Poetic
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 64
Fairmount Park · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-14 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-09-27 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-07-15 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-05-31 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-05-13 | Fairmount Park | ? | −1 | ||
| 2024-11-03 | Fairmount Park | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength38%
Delivery trend -3.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11/2024 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 31/05/2025 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 15/07/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 27/09/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 14/04/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |