7
Too Much Tuesday
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 74
Fairmount Park · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-21 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 6-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -11.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/04/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 03/06/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 28/09/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 21/10/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 09/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 86% | +0.38 |
| 30/05/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 86% | +0.17 |
| 23/06/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 43% | -0.39 |
| 18/07/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 25% | -0.54 |
| 18/08/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 13% | -0.61 |