3
Gonna Pick Domenic
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 65
Fairmount Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#4
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Fairmount Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-08-12 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength64%
Delivery trend +2.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 17/06/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 08/07/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 12/08/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 43% | -0.26 |
| 25/04/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 20/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |
| 07/07/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 11/08/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 29/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 88% | +0.24 |