Governing Party
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 87
Fairmount Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#1
Rank
Odds
6/5
Win Prob
21%
Place Prob
30%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-07-04 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-05-23 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2026-02-26 | Turfway Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-31 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-01 | Gulfstream | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.0% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price, confirming the short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/02/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 09/03/2025 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 29/10/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |
| 01/01/2026 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 13% | -0.45 |
| 31/01/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 20% | -0.66 |
| 26/02/2026 | 5th | 11/8 | 93% | 64% | -0.29 |
| 23/05/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 04/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 25/07/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |