5
Engagement
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 44
Fairmount Park · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Hawthorne | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Hawthorne | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-10 | Hawthorne | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-19 | Hawthorne | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 8-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend -0.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/06/2025 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 21/02/2026 | 12th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 19/03/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 19/04/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 10/05/2026 | 3rd | 8/13 | 97% | 50% | -0.47 |
| 11/06/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 21/06/2026 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 19/07/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 25% | -0.46 |
| 01/09/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 17% | -0.62 |