8
Heavenly Dancer
5yo Mare · 9-0 · OR 67
Fairmount Park · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-01 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-01-28 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-12 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-04-04 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-02-28 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength33%
Delivery trend -4.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/09/2024 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |
| 20/11/2024 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |
| 10/01/2025 | 5th | 5/4 | 93% | 50% | -0.43 |
| 28/02/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 04/04/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 12/12/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 28/01/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 01/03/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 21/03/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 20% | -0.66 |