1
Lost Sunset
7yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 69
Fairmount Park · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength21%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Hawthorne | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Hawthorne | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Hawthorne | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-02 | Hawthorne | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-12 | Hawthorne | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-05 | Hawthorne | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength23%
Delivery trend +2.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 24/08/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 04/09/2025 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 80% | -0.12 |
| 05/10/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 12/10/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 02/11/2025 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 44% | -0.13 |
| 11/06/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 25/06/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 12/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |