6
Racetothefinish
9yo Mare · 9-0 · OR 75
Fairmount Park · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
6/5
Win Prob
98%
Place Prob
83%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength7%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-04-14 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-30 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-11 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-12-10 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength99%
Delivery trend +4.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07/2025 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 14/08/2025 | 1st | 2/5 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 07/10/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 10/12/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 40% | -0.44 |
| 11/01/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 60% | -0.24 |
| 30/01/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 43% | -0.41 |
| 14/04/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 28/04/2026 | 1st | 4/11 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 01/09/2026 | 1st | 8/15 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |