1
Arose For Lily
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 74
Fairmount Park · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
75%
Place Prob
60%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 1.3 /10 (raw 1.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 3-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength68%
Delivery trend +0.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 04/08/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |