5
Coaly
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 64
Fairmount Park · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-09 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-07-15 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-04-22 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2024-09-10 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2024-08-06 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 6-7 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength1%
Delivery trend +3.7% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08/2024 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 60% | -0.31 |
| 10/09/2024 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 22/04/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 15/07/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 28/04/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 09/06/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |