7
Then Now 'n Always
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 84
Fairmount Park · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
25%
Place Prob
35%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 1.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-09 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-21 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-05 | Hawthorne | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-08-17 | Hawthorne | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 2-4 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength72%
Delivery trend -7.3% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 71% | +0.19 |
| 05/10/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 21/04/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 80% | -0.09 |
| 12/05/2026 | 1st | 4/11 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 09/06/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 80% | -0.09 |