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3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 73
Fairmount Park · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 2.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | Hawthorne | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-21 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-06-07 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-07 | Hawthorne | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-07-10 | Hawthorne | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-06-15 | Hawthorne | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 5-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength5%
Delivery trend +1.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/06/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 10/07/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 07/09/2025 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 33% | -0.57 |
| 07/06/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |
| 21/06/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 57% | -0.28 |
| 19/07/2026 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |