4
Dillon Rocks
10yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 76
Fairmount Park · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-05 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength43%
Delivery trend +6.8% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08/2025 | 5th | 15/8 | 90% | 33% | -0.57 |
| 13/09/2025 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |
| 04/10/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 18/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |
| 05/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 89% | +0.13 |
| 30/05/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 21/07/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 40% | -0.47 |
| 25/08/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 08/09/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 56% | +0.19 |