5
Joyful Ghost
6yo Horse · 8-12 · OR 75
Fairmount Park · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength2%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-14 | Fairmount Park | ? | 0 | ||
| 2025-09-30 | Fairmount Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +11.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09/2024 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 24/09/2024 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 05/07/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 16/09/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 30/09/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 09/06/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 18/07/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 25/08/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 08/09/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 78% | +0.04 |