Khozan's Valentine
9yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 78
Fairmount Park · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
93%
Place Prob
73%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 2.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-11-25 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 83% | +0.07 |
| 25/10/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 88% | +0.09 |
| 10/11/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 25/11/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 83% | +0.23 |
| 23/05/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |
| 07/07/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 21/07/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 80% | -0.09 |
| 25/08/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 63% | -0.11 |
| 08/09/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |