Twirling Roses
8yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 92
Fairmount Park · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
9/5
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-18 | Hawthorne | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Hawthorne | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-05-03 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-04-23 | Hawthorne | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-09 | Fair Grounds | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -7.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/01/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |
| 16/01/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 75% | +0.07 |
| 16/02/2026 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 09/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 90% | -0.03 |
| 23/04/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 75% | -0.15 |
| 03/05/2026 | 4th | 11/8 | 93% | 25% | -0.68 |
| 04/06/2026 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 33% | -0.59 |
| 18/06/2026 | 1st | 2/5 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 04/07/2026 | 5th | 13/8 | 91% | 33% | -0.58 |