Authentic Star

2yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 50

Gulfstream · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼1

Strength25%

What the class read says

Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.3

Today:

Class gap: +1.3

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-15	Gulfstream	?	6th	6th	0	4.0
2026-07-11	Gulfstream	?	6th	3rd	+3	7.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 9-9 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength0%

Delivery trend -57.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
11/07/2026	6th	16/1	16%	17%	+0.01
15/08/2026	6th	5/1	74%	17%	-0.57