9
I Wish You Love
3yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 77
Gulfstream · Race 10 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
97%
Place Prob
76%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-26 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-07 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-24 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-04-05 | Gulfstream | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength97%
Delivery trend +3.3% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/03/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 60% | -0.06 |
| 05/04/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 24/04/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 20% | -0.46 |
| 07/06/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 26/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 18/07/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 17/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |