Rawayana

3yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 79

Gulfstream · Race 10 - Claiming · 1m 110y

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

11%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength25%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.6

Today:

Class gap: -0.1

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-06-19	Gulfstream	?	6th	6th	0	4.0
2026-04-17	Gulfstream	?	1st	2nd	−1	7.8
2026-03-27	Gulfstream	?	2nd	3rd	−1	6.8
2026-02-20	Gulfstream	?	6th	7th	−1	2.8
2026-01-29	Gulfstream	?	9th	8th	+1	2.2
2025-12-20	Gulfstream	?	9th	7th	+2	2.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 4-10 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength27%

Delivery trend -9.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
28/09/2025	4th	40/1	0%	70%	+0.70
26/10/2025	2nd	12/1	37%	86%	+0.49
23/11/2025	4th	9/2	76%	63%	-0.14
20/12/2025	9th	16/1	16%	27%	+0.11
29/01/2026	9th	15/2	61%	27%	-0.33
20/02/2026	6th	11/4	86%	17%	-0.69
27/03/2026	2nd	5/1	74%	88%	+0.14
17/04/2026	1st	8/11	96%	100%	+0.04
19/06/2026	6th	10/1	47%	17%	-0.31