6
Tie It With A Bow
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 85
Gulfstream · Race 2 - Claiming · 5f
#1
Rank
Odds
11/8
Win Prob
95%
Place Prob
73%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-03 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-04 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength81%
Delivery trend -1.7% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 03/05/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 86% | -0.06 |
| 22/05/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 26/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 86% | +0.38 |
| 26/07/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 23/08/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |