Loyalist
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 54
Gulfstream · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 70y
#2
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/03/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 17/04/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 10/05/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 21/06/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 11/07/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 26/07/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 17/08/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 31/08/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |
| 18/09/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |