Atmidnight

5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 93

Gulfstream · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m 110y

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength47%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.8

Today:

Class gap: +0.7

Higher-class runs: 5

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-03	Colonial Downs	?	4th	4th	0	6.0
2026-07-26	Colonial Downs	?	4th	3rd	+1	7.2
2026-07-06	Colonial Downs	?	3rd	2nd	+1	8.2
2026-04-19	Tampa Bay Downs	?	5th	4th	+1	6.2
2026-03-21	Tampa Bay Downs	?	3rd	2nd	+1	7.6
2026-02-21	Tampa Bay Downs	?	3rd	2nd	+1	7.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength58%

Delivery trend -6.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
20/12/2025	6th	20/1	0%	29%	+0.29
17/01/2026	5th	15/2	61%	60%	-0.01
08/02/2026	1st	11/2	71%	100%	+0.29
21/02/2026	3rd	25/1	0%	82%	+0.82
21/03/2026	3rd	14/1	26%	71%	+0.45
19/04/2026	5th	16/1	16%	43%	+0.27
06/07/2026	3rd	9/2	76%	71%	-0.05
26/07/2026	4th	7/2	82%	40%	-0.42
03/09/2026	4th	9/2	76%	67%	-0.10