5
Compass Rises
6yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 87
Gulfstream · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
46%
Place Prob
35%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-21 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-25 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-03 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-13 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength55%
Delivery trend -6.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 63% | +0.05 |
| 01/11/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 22/11/2025 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 13/12/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 03/01/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 25/01/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 21/02/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 21/03/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 11/09/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 71% | -0.18 |