6
Hayden Remembered
3yo Colt · 8-8 · OR 85
Gulfstream · Race 9 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-11 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-03-14 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-02-08 | Gulfstream | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +2.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/02/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 14/03/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 11/04/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 16/05/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 80% | +0.64 |
| 28/06/2026 | 1st | 8/13 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 29/08/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |