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6

Arctic Thunder

5yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 96

Haydock · William Hill Epic Boosts Handicap · 7f 212y

#2

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

80%

Place Prob

58%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Very much back on the up when completing a double over C&D (good to firm) last month. Seems unlikely to benefit from a strongly-run race on this occasion but still looked to be in good form when beaten 5¾ lengths in his hat-trick bid at Ascot subsequently.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Newbury 20/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 86 · 7f Goo 131 · beat its mark20/09/2025 · OR 86 par20/093OR 863 @ Leicester 14/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR 86 · 7f Goo 134 · beat its mark14/10/2025 · OR 86 par3 @ Newbury 17/04/2026 · Pos 12th of 16 · OR 86 · 6f Gd 126 · beat its mark17/04/2026 · OR 86 par17/043OR 863 @ Chester 06/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 85 · 7f1y Gd 130 · beat its mark06/05/2026 · OR 85 par2 @ Epsom Downs 05/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 84 · 7f3y Goo 126 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 84 par5/062OR 844 @ Kempton 29/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 83 · 1m Sta 140 · beat its mark29/06/2026 · OR 83 par3 @ Salisbury 21/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 81 · 1m Goo 131 · beat its mark21/07/2026 · OR 81 par21/073OR 813 @ Haydock 08/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 88 · 7f212y Goo 135 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 88 par2 @ Ascot 04/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 96 · 1m Goo 132 · beat its mark04/09/2026 · OR 96 par4/092OR 96projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Ascot26th6th0
2026-08-08Haydock31st2nd−1
2026-07-21Salisbury31st2nd−1
2026-06-29Kempton48th10th−2
2026-06-05Epsom Downs26th6th0
2026-05-06Chester37th8th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/096/0521/074/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength65%

Delivery trend +2.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/09/20253rd9/276%80%+0.04
14/10/20254th4/179%79%-0.00
17/04/202612th11/271%27%-0.44
06/05/20267th7/282%50%-0.32
05/06/20266th11/142%67%+0.25
29/06/20268th11/142%46%+0.04
21/07/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
08/08/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
04/09/20266th11/271%58%-0.13