1
Cerulean Bay
5yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 104
Haydock · William Hill Epic Boosts Handicap · 7f 212y
#6
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength36%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.8
Today: 2
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | York | 2 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Ascot | 2 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Goodwood | 2 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Pontefract | 1 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-11 | York | 2 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Royal Ascot | 2 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength48%
Delivery trend -8.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 25/04/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 73% | +0.36 |
| 14/05/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 94% | +0.26 |
| 17/06/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 85% | +0.85 |
| 11/07/2026 | 8th | 3/1 | 84% | 42% | -0.43 |
| 26/07/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 40% | -0.21 |
| 31/07/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 94% | +0.57 |
| 08/08/2026 | 9th | 7/1 | 63% | 11% | -0.52 |
| 20/08/2026 | 12th | 12/1 | 37% | 15% | -0.21 |