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7

Commander's Intent

3yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 100

Haydock · William Hill Epic Boosts Handicap · 7f 212y

#3

Rank

Odds

18/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#3

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ended useful juvenile season on a high when runner-up in 7f listed event at Chantilly. Wasn't beaten far despite trailing the field in the Craven on return. Gelded since finishing third in German Group 3 in April and seemingly has plenty on at the weights on first start in open company.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength46%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.3
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newbury 16/05/2025 · Pos 11th of 18 · OR - · 6f Goo 13316/0544 @ Yarmouth 29/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 7f3y GS 13329/0544 @ Newmarket 21/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR - · 7f GF 13621/0644 @ Doncaster 24/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 87 · 7f6y Goo 137 · beat its mark24/07/2025 · OR 87 par24/074OR 871 @ Newmarket 25/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 97 · 7f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/09/2025 · OR 97 par25/091OR 97C1 @ Chantilly 11/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 100 · 6f211y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/10/2025 · OR 100 par11/10C1OR 1001 @ Newmarket 16/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 100 · 1m Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark16/04/2026 · OR 100 par16/041OR 100projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-04-16Newmarket15th3rd+1
2025-10-11Chantilly?2nd1st+1
2025-09-25Newmarket12nd0th+1
2025-07-24Doncaster41st3rd−2
2025-06-21Newmarket43rd5th−2
2025-05-29Yarmouth41st3rd−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0524/0716/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength29%

Delivery trend -4.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/05/202511th16/116%41%+0.25
29/05/20251st85/4089%100%+0.11
21/06/20253rd9/153%50%-0.03
24/07/20251st6/594%100%+0.06
25/09/20252nd12/137%83%+0.46
11/10/20252nd8/1196%86%-0.10
16/04/20265th16/116%0%-0.16