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10

Desperate Dan

5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 84

Haydock · William Hill Epic Boosts Handicap · 7f 212y

#9

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Never looked like justifying support when bidding to land a third career heavy-ground handicap at Goodwood in June. Tendency to race freely gives pause on return from 3 months away, and he could be one for later in the autumn.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Windsor 14/10/2024 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 72 · 1m31y Hvy 140 · beat its mark14/10/2024 · OR 72 par14/105OR 723 @ Newbury 26/10/2024 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 82 · 1m2f Hvy 130 · beat its mark26/10/2024 · OR 82 par2 @ Newmarket 03/05/2025 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR 82 · 1m1f Goo 114 · beat its mark03/05/2025 · OR 82 par3/052OR 824 @ Sandown 25/07/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 80 · 1m Gd 137 · below its mark25/07/2025 · OR 80 par4 @ Windsor 08/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 78 · 1m31y Goo 142 · beat its mark08/09/2025 · OR 78 par8/094OR 784 @ Nottingham 08/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 82 · 1m75y GS 135 · beat its mark08/10/2025 · OR 82 par3 @ Doncaster 25/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 82 · 1m Hvy 127 · beat its mark25/10/2025 · OR 82 par25/103OR 822 @ Doncaster 28/03/2026 · Pos 9th of 22 · OR 86 · 1m Goo 134 · beat its mark28/03/2026 · OR 86 par4 @ Goodwood 12/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 86 · 1m Sft 157 · below its mark12/06/2026 · OR 86 par12/064OR 86projClass-projected finish: 7th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-12Goodwood46th8th−2
2026-03-28Doncaster29th9th0
2025-10-25Doncaster31st2nd−1
2025-10-08Nottingham44th6th−2
2025-09-08Windsor41st3rd−2
2025-07-25Sandown46th8th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/1025/0725/1012/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 3-9 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength27%

Delivery trend +0.8% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 9th of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/10/20242nd6/492%90%-0.02
26/10/20246th3/184%50%-0.34
03/05/202513th33/10%0%0.00
25/07/20256th12/137%17%-0.20
08/09/20251st9/276%100%+0.24
08/10/20254th7/282%70%-0.12
25/10/20251st11/142%100%+0.58
28/03/20269th11/142%62%+0.20
12/06/20266th15/890%29%-0.62