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11

Boston Dan

3yo Colt · 8-11 · OR 82

Haydock · William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap · 5f

#3

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Useful 5f winner at 2 yrs for Richard Fahey. Bounced back to form in first-time tongue tie to score over C&D in September but only sixteenth of 24 in Bronze Cup at Ayr (6f, soft) 8 days ago. More is required.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength24%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 9.6 /10 (raw 6.6)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Newmarket 16/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 97 · 6f Gd 132 · beat its mark16/04/2026 · OR 97 par16/042OR 971 @ York 14/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 95 · 5f Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/05/2026 · OR 95 par2 @ York 13/06/2026 · Pos 12th of 22 · OR 92 · 6f Goo 124 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 92 par13/062OR 922 @ York 27/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR 90 · 5f Goo 131 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 90 par3 @ Chester 25/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 86 · 6f17y Goo 126 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 86 par25/073OR 863 @ Ripon 03/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 84 · 6f Goo 126 · below its mark03/08/2026 · OR 84 par2 @ York 19/08/2026 · Pos 15th of 19 · OR 80 · 5f Goo 114 · beat its mark19/08/2026 · OR 80 par19/082OR 804 @ Haydock 04/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 77 · 5f Hvy 134 · beat its mark04/09/2026 · OR 77 par2 @ Ayr 18/09/2026 · Pos 16th of 24 · OR 80 · 6f Sft 133 · beat its mark18/09/2026 · OR 80 par18/092OR 80projClass-projected finish: 7th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18Ayr216th16th0
2026-09-04Haydock41st3rd−2
2026-08-19York215th15th0
2026-08-03Ripon37th8th−1
2026-07-25Chester34th5th−1
2026-06-27York210th10th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0427/0619/0818/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength57%

Delivery trend -1.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/04/20269th20/10%33%+0.33
14/05/202610th25/10%0%0.00
13/06/202612th80/10%48%+0.48
27/06/202610th28/10%25%+0.25
25/07/20264th16/116%50%+0.34
03/08/20267th12/137%0%-0.37
19/08/202615th100/10%22%+0.22
04/09/20261st14/126%100%+0.74
18/09/202616th10/147%35%-0.13