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10

Elara May

3yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 83

Haydock · William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap · 5f

#4

Rank

Odds

11/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

A 4-time 5f winner at 2 yrs. Lightly raced this season but as good as ever when placed in handicaps at Yarmouth (5f) and over C&D recently. Well in the mix off the same mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength34%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Chepstow 14/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 64 · 5f16y Goo 141 · beat its mark14/08/2025 · OR 64 par14/086OR 644 @ Beverley 24/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 76 · 5f Goo 126 · beat its mark24/08/2025 · OR 76 par4 @ Yarmouth 18/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 80 · 6f3y Sft 132 · beat its mark18/09/2025 · OR 80 par18/094OR 804 @ Chelmsford City 09/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 80 · 5f Std 135 · beat its mark09/10/2025 · OR 80 par1 @ Newmarket 31/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 19 · OR 88 · 6f Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/10/2025 · OR 88 par31/101OR 883 @ Newmarket 17/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 88 · 6f GF 133 · below its mark17/07/2026 · OR 88 par4 @ Newmarket 21/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 85 · 6f Goo 137 · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 85 par21/084OR 853 @ Yarmouth 30/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 83 · 5f42y GS 129 · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 83 par2 @ Haydock 05/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 83 · 5f Sft 123 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 83 par5/092OR 83projClass-projected finish: 4th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Haydock23rd3rd0
2026-08-30Yarmouth32nd3rd−1
2026-08-21Newmarket44th6th−2
2026-07-17Newmarket38th9th−1
2025-10-31Newmarket14th3rd+1
2025-10-09Chelmsford City41st3rd−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/089/1021/085/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength74%

Delivery trend +1.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/08/20251st8/1397%100%+0.03
24/08/20251st12/137%100%+0.63
18/09/20253rd4/179%60%-0.19
09/10/20251st11/271%100%+0.29
31/10/20254th33/10%83%+0.83
17/07/20268th16/116%0%-0.16
21/08/20264th22/10%57%+0.57
30/08/20262nd7/163%67%+0.04
05/09/20263rd14/126%75%+0.49